Title: Carbon emission forecasting and peak carbon pathway analysis based on combined BP neural network and grey forecasting models - a perspective of China's data, 1997-2021

Authors: Mingxun Zhu; Qiufeng Yin; Lei Wu; Huanying Li

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, Changsha Normal University, Hunan Changsha 410000, China ' School of Economics and Management, Changsha Normal University, Hunan Changsha 410000, China ' School of Economics and Management, Changsha Normal University, Hunan Changsha 410000, China ' School of Economics and Management, Changsha Normal University, Hunan Changsha 410000, China

Abstract: This study aims to forecast China's carbon emissions and identify the peak emission year using data from the China statistical yearbook from 1997 to 2021. Employing both the grey forecasting model and the BP neural network, this study predicts that China's carbon emissions will peak in 2030 and then decline year by year, aligning with the nation's carbon peak commitment. The analysis suggests that with the implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction policies, along with technological advancements, China is on track to achieve its green and low-carbon development goals post-peak. This study provides valuable insights for policy formulation towards carbon neutrality by 2060.

Keywords: grey model; GM; BP neural network model; carbon emissions; carbon peak.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2025.150811

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2025 Vol.75 No.3, pp.243 - 258

Received: 15 Feb 2024
Accepted: 02 Sep 2024
Published online: 23 Dec 2025 *

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