Title: A prospective study of the determinants of economic growth in Tunisia 1990–2030

Authors: Fayza Jallouli; Tarek Yalouli; Sonali Vyas; Sunil Gupta

Addresses: Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax, Higher Institute of Industrial Management of Sfax (ISGI), Tunisia ' Faculty of Economics, Commerce and Management Sciences, Badji Mokhtar University-Annaba, Algeria ' School of Computer Science, UPES University Dehradun, India ' School of Computer Science, UPES University Dehradun, India

Abstract: The research reported in this work is to shed light on the nature of the relationship between economic growth and many economic variables in Tunisia between 1990–2021. This study is based on the theoretical framework of economic growth, and it aimed to build an econometric model of economic growth based on interpreted economic variables. The findings of our research showed that both public expenditure, human capital, and trade openness were considered the most influential factors on economic growth in Tunisia during the study period. However, the two economic variables such as physical capital and money supply were considered as the least influential factors on economic growth. It is worth noting that we tried to build a standard model of economic growth based on explanatory economic variables to make a forecast study of the growth of the gross domestic product and knowledge of the expectations and forecasts for the period 2021–2030.

Keywords: economic growth; gross domestic product; GDP; ARDL model; ARIMA model; Eviews; Tunisia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2025.145207

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2025 Vol.21 No.2, pp.105 - 127

Received: 02 May 2023
Accepted: 03 Jul 2023
Published online: 25 Mar 2025 *

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