Title: A novel earned value management model using Z-number

Authors: Mostafa Salari; Morteza Bagherpour; John Wang

Addresses: Department of Industrial Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Azadi Street, Tehran, Iran ' Department of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Narmak, Tehran, Iran ' Department of Information and Operation Management, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ 07043, USA

Abstract: The earned value management (EVM) model is an essential technique for managing and forecasting project features such as scheduling and cost performances indexes. This paper presents a novel fuzzy earned-value model based on Z-number theory incorporating both the impreciseness of real life conditions and a degree of reliability through considering an expert judgment process. The latter factor has not been used by other researchers in the field. The proposed model provides a reliable assessment for the progress performance of a project and its 'at completion' cost in an uncertain environment. Finally, an illustrative case demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model in real life projects.

Keywords: earned value management; fuzzy EVM; cost control; estimation process; Z-number theory; forecasting; project management; scheduling; cost performance; impreciseness; reliability.

DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2014.058037

International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 2014 Vol.7 No.1, pp.97 - 119

Received: 05 Jun 2013
Accepted: 10 Jun 2013
Published online: 28 Jun 2014 *

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