Title: 'Miracle-on-the-Hudson': quantitative aftermath
Author: Ephraim Suhir
Address: University of California, 1156 High St., Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA; ERS Co. LLC, 727 Alvina Ct., Los Altos, CA 94024, USA
Abstract: Application of the quantitative probabilistic risk management (PRM) concept should complement in various human-in-the-loop (HITL) situations, whenever feasible and possible, the existing vehicular psychology practices, which are typically qualitative a-posteriori statistical assessments. A PRM approach based on the double exponential probability distribution function of the extreme value distribution type is suggested as a suitable quantitative technique for assessing the probability of the human non-failure in an off-normal flight situation. The famous 2009 US Airways 'miracle-on-the-Hudson' successful landing (ditching) and the infamous 1998 Swiss Air 'UN-shuttle' disaster are chosen to illustrate the usefulness and fruitfulness of the approach. It is concluded that the developed formalisms, after trustworthy input data are obtained (using, e.g., flight simulators or Delphi method) might be applicable even beyond the vehicular domain in various HITL situations, when a short term high human performance is imperative and the ability to quantify it is highly desirable.
Keywords: human-in-the-loop; HITL; human factors; probabilistic risk management; mission safety; quantitative analysis; flight simulators; Delphi method; abnormal flight situations; human performance.
Int. J. of Human Factors Modelling and Simulation, 2013 Vol.4, No.1, pp.35 - 62
Submission date: 20 Jan 2013
Date of acceptance: 30 Jan 2013
Available online: 08 Aug 2013