Title: Environmental modelling for blue collars
Authors: Dan V. Vamanu; Adrian V. Gheorghe; Valentin T. Acasandrei; Bogdan I. Vamanu
Addresses: Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 30 Reactorului Street, 077125, Bucharest Magurele, Romania. ' Old Dominion University, 241 Kaufman Hall, Norfolk, VA 23529, USA; Beijing Normal University, No.19, Xin Jie Kou Wai St., Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China. ' Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 30 Reactorului Street, 077125, Bucharest Magurele, Romania. ' Horia Hulubei National Institute of Physics and Nuclear Engineering, 30 Reactorului Street, 077125, Bucharest Magurele, Romania
Abstract: Model complexity and the breakpoint of diminishing returns; physical vs. conceptual modelling; the relevance and limits of the heuristic solutions; screening vs. analytical modelling; perceptions of uncertainties, calibration and sensitivity analysis; and the ethics in modelling are only a few issues outstanding in the volatile philosophy of the environmental modelling. Glossing on these, the paper attempts to share a few views on possible manners to serve the growing appetite of emergency managers for simple tools of first recourse in crises while also tempering their complexity aversion, in an environment of, otherwise, a booming complexity.
Keywords: environmental risk; environmental modelling; model complexity; practicality; tradeoffs; system analysis; software development; emergency management; crisis management; disaster management; ethics; conceptual modelling; screening; analytical modelling; uncertainty; calibration; sensitivity analysis.
International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2011 Vol.46 No.3/4, pp.246 - 266
Received: 31 Mar 2011
Accepted: 12 Sep 2011
Published online: 30 Apr 2015 *