Financial impacts and risks of climate change: a case study of fish farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam
by Neil Ridler; Cyril Ridler
International Journal of Management Development (IJMD), Vol. 1, No. 4, 2016

Abstract: Farmers face weather-related risks that are often overlooked in the literature. This paper analyses the potential impact of one weather-related risk, climate change. The context is aquaculture in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, where severe storms are forecast to cause flooding and pond salination. In the Delta, the two principal farmed species are the Pangasius catfish and giant prawn; their cultivation provides employment to about a quarter of a million people, and they are a source of food security for more than a million people. This development engine could be jeopardised unless farmers are given sufficient lead-time to adapt to severe weather risks. An enterprise model is developed that conforms to existing bio-economic data for an average farm of the two principal species in the Mekong Delta. The model then simulates likely impacts of climate change on financial variables. It should be noted that these impacts are not definitive, but are merely 'guesstimates' and should be used with caution. However, they do provide an indication of likely trends. Strategies are suggested that might mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

Online publication date: Mon, 03-Apr-2017

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