Authors: Jianmin Li
Addresses: School of Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China; School of Management and Economics, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China
Abstract: Industrial technology roadmapping (ITRM) offers an important tool for technology R&D planning in manufacturing industry. However, previous studies cannot support the R&D planning and management in practical applications since they remain conceptual and lack of robustness in a volatile environment. In response, this research uses scenario planning and Bayesian network to support R&D planning for developing an ITRM. The first step is to construct the scenarios which are used as inputs for the scenario-based technology roadmapping (SITRM). Second, a Bayesian network topology model of SITRM is developed, in order to display various states of random variables and the uncertainty in relationships between nodes uncertainty of SITRM. Finally, based on probability deduction methods of Bayesian network, a quantitative analysis process and calculation model in supporting technology R&D planning was performed. As an illustrative example, light emitting diode industry in Guangdong is presented to show the feasibility of this method.
Keywords: R&D planning; scenario based-industrial technology roadmapping; SITRM; scenario planning; manufacturing industry.
International Journal of Internet Manufacturing and Services, 2017 Vol.4 No.4, pp.269 - 282
Received: 28 Feb 2017
Accepted: 07 Jul 2017
Published online: 24 Nov 2017 *