Title: Using experience curve to project net hydroelectricity generation: in comparison to EIAs projection

Authors: Yu Sang Chang; Sung Jun Jo; Seongmin Jeon

Addresses: College of Business, Gachon University, 1342 Seongnamdaero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si, Kyunggi-do, 461-701, South Korea ' College of Business, Gachon University, 1342 Seongnamdaero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si, Kyunggi-do, 461-701, South Korea ' College of Business, Gachon University, 1342 Seongnamdaero, Sujeong-gu, Seongnam-si, Kyunggi-do, 461-701, South Korea

Abstract: The US Energy Intensity Administration in its 2013 International Energy Outlook has projected net hydroelectricity generation for the year of 2020, 2030 and 2040 for selected ten countries. In order to demonstrate the use of an alternative projection methodology, we use a simple experience curve to project hydroelectricity intensity, which in turn is used to estimate future net hydroelectricity generation for the same year of 2020, 2030 and 2040. Our own projection results are higher for five countries and lower for remaining five countries, when compared to the EIA' projections. However, for China, the largest producing country, our projection is significantly higher by 77%. Alternative projections made by other sources on China, however, appear to support our own projection. Implications from our findings will be discussed.

Keywords: hydroelectricity intensity; hydropower; classical experience curve; kinked experience curve; net hydroelectricity generation; NHG.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2017.085384

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2017 Vol.13 No.4, pp.305 - 319

Received: 12 Mar 2016
Accepted: 10 Jul 2016
Published online: 25 Jul 2017 *

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