Title: Physical and behavioural determinants of resilience in the transportation system: a case study of vehicle electrification and trip prioritisation

Authors: Brandon M. Marshall; Kevin M. Bolon; Jarod C. Kelly; Gregory A. Keoleian

Addresses: Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA ' Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA ' Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA ' Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA

Abstract: The coupling of transportation and electrical grid infrastructures through plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) offers the potential to improve system resilience by diversifying energy supply. In addition, adaptive behavioural responses can mitigate the effects of a disruption. This paper examines vehicle electrification and trip prioritisation as physical and behavioural determinants of transportation system resilience during a gasoline supply disruption using National Household Travel Survey data. Realised travel factor, the ratio of completed to demanded travel, is defined as an indicator of resilience. Simulations using the overall population indicate trip prioritisation improves resilience more than PEV adoption at lower levels of electrification (below 20 mile electric range), although household-level results vary according to fleet size and travel demand. While 67% of households require no adaptive change during a five-day disruption, additional households are able to complete all high-priority trips through trip prioritisation (+12%), PEV adoption (/14%), or a combination of both (+23%).

Keywords: transportation resilience; plug-in electric vehicles; PEVs; gasoline shortage; coupled infrastructures; petrol shortage; physical determinants; behavioural determinants; transport systems; case study; vehicle electrification; trip prioritisation; transport infrastructure; electrical grid infrastructure; system resilience; simulation; fleet size; travel demand.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2016.075866

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2016 Vol.12 No.1/2, pp.104 - 119

Received: 10 Mar 2014
Accepted: 18 Mar 2014

Published online: 10 Apr 2016 *

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