Title: Synthesis and analysis of probabilities of events by non-numeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information

Authors: Ekaterina Karaseva; Vadim Alexeev

Addresses: Department of Information Technologies in Business, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation, Russia ' Intellectual Integrated Systems of Automated Design Laboratory, IPME RAS 199178, St. Petersburg, Bolshoi 61, V.O., Russia

Abstract: In this paper, we describe new kinds of events in logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. Following LP risk models are considered: hybrid LP-models, conceptual LP-models and LP-models for the operational risk management in a bank. Techniques of synthesis and analysis of probabilities of initiating events on basis of method of summarised and randomised indexes with use of non-numeric, inaccurate and incomplete expert information (NII-information) were developed for LP risk models. 'Expa' software is described with the convenient interface for the synthesis and analysis of probabilities and allocation of resources for change of probabilities of events.

Keywords: logical risk models; probabilistic risk models; risk modelling; synthesis; analysis; logic; probability; events; hybrid models; conceptual models; expert information; software; risk management; bank risks; banking industry; non-numeric information; incomplete information; inaccurate information.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2015.071215

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2015 Vol.18 No.3/4, pp.276 - 287

Received: 30 Apr 2014
Accepted: 21 Oct 2014

Published online: 17 Aug 2015 *

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