Title: Long-term trends in non-renewable resource commodity prices: fresh evidence in the presence of structural breaks

Authors: Aviral Kumar Tiwari

Addresses: Faculty of Management, IBS Hyderabad, IFHE University Hyderabad, Hyderabad 501203, Telangana, India

Abstract: This study examines temporal properties of real price series of 11 natural resources covering the period 1870-1990 and utilising a recently developed unit root test proposed by Narayan and Poop and a stationarity test developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sansó. We also employed a stationarity test developed by Lima and Neri. Results obtained from Lima and Neri's study provide evidence to reject the null hypothesis of stationarity for aluminium, coal, copper, petroleum, silver and tin, indicating that these series are I(1), while results from the Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sansó proposed test provide evidence to reject the null hypothesis of stationarity for aluminium, iron, tin and zinc, indicating that these series are I(1). The results obtained from the Narayan and Poop unit root test provide significant evidence of stationarity for aluminium, copper, lead, silver, gas and zinc, indicating that only these variables are I(0).

Keywords: non-renewable resource commodity prices; structural breaks; long-term trends; coal; copper; petroleum; silver; aluminium; iron; tin; zinc; unit root test.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGEI.2015.070271

International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 2015 Vol.38 No.4/5/6, pp.373 - 392

Available online: 20 Jun 2015 *

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