Title: The future of decentralised energy systems: insights from a Delphi study

Authors: Kalle Elfvengren; Matti Karvonen; Kimmo Klemola; Matti Lehtovaara

Addresses: Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland ' Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland ' Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland ' Lappeenranta University of Technology, Skinnarilankatu 34, 53850, Lappeenranta, Finland

Abstract: In this paper, we evaluate how decentralised energy technologies will develop in Finland in the next five to ten years. The development and potential impacts of technological discontinuities are analysed by using the Delphi method. The primary data were collected in a four-round Delphi process in the beginning of 2012. The experts of the Delphi panel were from the industry and academic institutions. The focus of the study is on an incumbent firms' position and new business opportunities in a changing environment. By gathering data and insights, the paper also offers general views on future decentralised energy applications and market opportunities.

Keywords: decentralised energy systems; incumbents; business potential; Delphi study; technology forecasting; energy technology; Finland; technological discontinuities.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETP.2014.066883

International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, 2014 Vol.10 No.3/4, pp.265 - 279

Available online: 12 Jan 2015 *

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