Title: Development of an integrated foresight process oriented toward social vision creation on ageing society in Japan

Authors: Yuko Ito; Daisuke Kanama

Addresses: Research Unit of Science of Science Innovation Policy, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), 3-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-0013, Japan ' Department of Business and Information Systems, Hokkaido Information University, Nishinopporo 59-2, Ebetsu, Hokkaido, 069-8585, Japan

Abstract: International competition has intensified along with the spread of globalisation in recent years, and this increases the importance of a new technology foresight approach that will contribute to making science and technology innovation policy. In this study, based on the experience in the pilot projects for technology foresight implemented by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (Japan) in 2007 and 2008, we applied multiple foresight methods, including the Delphi method, in an attempt to design a new technology foresight method oriented toward vision creation on ageing society in Japan. As a result, we could develop a final vision in a clearer form by applying multiple methods and reflecting the survey results obtained by each method. The process of preparing for the Delphi survey is also suggested to be effective in promoting the formation of a consensus among experts of different fields, which also works well toward vision creation.

Keywords: innovation policy; Delphi method; vision creation; technology foresight; ageing society; Japan; social vision; consensus.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2013.058606

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2013 Vol.9 No.2/3/4, pp.235 - 252

Accepted: 13 Dec 2012
Published online: 10 Jan 2014 *

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