Title: A model for predicting enrolment yields

Authors: Paul Sugrue

Addresses: Department of Management Science, School of Business Administration, University of Miami, 419 KE Building, Coral Gables, Florida, 33124, USA

Abstract: Predicting enrolment yields is central to any enrolment projection model. In order to more effectively assess the impact of financial aid strategies on the institutions budget, both revenues (tuition) and expenses (financial aid), one must start with an effective predictive model for yields. This paper will present a statistical model for assessing the relationship between enrolment yield, financial aid, applicant quality and applicant demographics. The approach employed in this work is logistic regression. The model is developed and preliminarily tested using actual 2009 admissions data. The same model is then employed to predict enrolments for the 2010 academic year.

Keywords: forecasting; yield prediction; logistic regression; enrolment yields; institutional budgets; revenues; tuition; expenses; statistical modelling; financial aid; applicant quality; applicant demographics; student enrolment.

DOI: 10.1504/IJOR.2014.057845

International Journal of Operational Research, 2014 Vol.19 No.1, pp.60 - 67

Received: 06 Jul 2012
Accepted: 28 Jul 2012
Published online: 17 Jun 2014 *

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