Title: Stochastic diffusion models for substitutable technological innovations

Authors: Baomin Hu, Lili Wang, Xinkai Yu

Addresses: School of Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300130, PR China. ' Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies (ECIS), Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven 5600MB, The Netherlands. ' School of Management, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300130, PR China

Abstract: Based on the analysis of firms| stochastic adoption behaviour, this paper first points out the necessity to build more practical stochastic models. And then, stochastic evolutionary models are built for substitutable innovation diffusion system. Finally, through the computer simulation of the diffusion models, we can explain the evolutionary characteristics of substitutable technological innovation diffusion and get the corresponding diffusion patterns, which are helpful for firms to adopt an innovation at the optimal occasion, and accelerate the evolution speed of the new technology.

Keywords: substitutable technological innovation; stochastic adoption behaviour; diffusion pattern; stochastic diffusion model; computer simulation; decision making; technology adoption.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.2004.005775

International Journal of Technology Management, 2004 Vol.28 No.7/8, pp.654 - 666

Available online: 05 Dec 2004 *

Full-text access for editors Access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article