Title: The SADC region and EPA/EBAI – trade balance analysis

Authors: Mphumuzi A. Sukati

Addresses: School of Economics, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK

Abstract: This paper investigates the potential trade balance outcomes of the economic partnership agreement (EPA)/everything but arms initiative (EBAI) policies in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 7 model and database. The analysis of these policies therefore make conclusion on SADC member states changes in trade balance overall, per commodity groups and on overall welfare outcomes as a result of these policies. The study has found that although the EPA/EBAI policies potentially result in overall welfare gain in the SADC region this welfare gain will only be 6% of the European Union (EU) 27. Analysis of trade balance outcome reveals that the SADC African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) region will suffer a negative trade balance of US$1,596.8 million with the EU, on the other hand, having a positive trade balance of US$105.61 million. Since a positive trade balance is important for sustainable development of nations, these results once again throw into doubt the potential sustainable economic growth benefits of these policies to ACP countries.

Keywords: trade balance; welfare gains; EPA-EBAI policies; sustainable development; sustainable economic growth; sustainability; Southern African Development Community; SADC; economic partnership agreement; EPA; everything but arms initiative; EBAI; global trade analysis; sustainable economy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSE.2012.046218

International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 2012 Vol.4 No.2, pp.136 - 154

Published online: 21 Nov 2014 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article