Title: Integrated fuzzy framework to incorporate uncertainty in risk management

Authors: Vikas Kumar, Marta Schuhmacher

Addresses: Catchment Science Centre, University of Sheffield, S3 7HQ, Sheffield, UK. ' Environmental Management and Engineering (AGA) Group, ETSEQ, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43007 Tarragona, Spain

Abstract: Integrated Fuzzy Relation Analysis (IFRA) model is proposed for risk assessment involving multiple criteria. The model is an integrated view on uncertainty techniques based on multi-valued mappings, fuzzy relations and fuzzy analytical hierarchical process. Integration of system simulation and risk analysis using fuzzy approach allowed incorporating system modelling uncertainty and subjective risk criteria. The model is demonstrated for a multi-components groundwater contamination problem. Results reflect uncertainties presented as fuzzy numbers for different modelling inputs obtained from fuzzy system simulation. It has been shown that uncertainty can be propagated in complete risk management chain through a broad integration of fuzzy system simulation, and fuzzy risk analysis is possible.

Keywords: fuzzy modelling; multicriteria risk assessment; integrated FRA; fuzzy relation analysis; FAHP; fuzzy AHP; analytical hierarchical process; uncertainty; fuzzy simulation; system modelling; groundwater contamination; environmental pollution; risk management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2010.034244

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2010 Vol.42 No.1/2/3, pp.270 - 288

Published online: 30 Jul 2010 *

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