Title: Modelling, analysis and risk evaluation of resource circulation in Asia

Authors: Yusuke Kishita, Shinichi Fukushige, Yasushi Umeda, Jun Fujimoto

Addresses: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1, Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka, 565 0871, Japan. ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1, Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka, 565 0871, Japan. ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1, Yamada-oka, Suita, Osaka, 565 0871, Japan. ' Department of Management and Information System Science, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-Ku, Tokyo, 153 8904, Japan

Abstract: A considerable amount of resources is exchanged among Japan and other Asian countries. We call it |global circulation|. Although such circulation currently causes various environmental pollutions, it will become a hopeful measure for resource conservation. For clarifying the conditions for sustainable global circulation, we evaluate several scenarios of the global circulation from the viewpoints of economic and environmental aspects. When modelling the global circulation, we inevitably encounter two types of uncertainty, i.e. unexpected events and insufficient practical data. This article represents such uncertainty as risks and data width. The simulation results indicate that a product reuse scenario is the most promising for the sustainable global circulation. Concerning recycling scenarios, the risks are higher than those of reuse scenarios. This article also points out that the traceability, one of the most crucial elements for constructing the sustainable global circulation, can be measured by the risks.

Keywords: Asia; global circulation; life cycle simulation; personal computers; recycling; resource circulation; product reuse; risk assessment; scenario; Japan; sustainability; traceability; uncertainty; sustainable development; simulation.

DOI: 10.1504/IJETM.2009.027612

International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, 2009 Vol.11 No.4, pp.290 - 318

Published online: 03 Aug 2009 *

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