Title: The problem of judgement in constructing numerical models for policy analysis

Authors: Stephen R. Watson

Addresses: The Management School, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YX, UK

Abstract: In many different fields it is now commonplace for complex numerical models to be constructed with a view to illuminating public policy issues. The analysts who construct these models have to make many decisions on how to represent the issues numerically, and they sometimes seek expert advice in this task. In this paper we first justify our assertion that modelling problems of this nature involve judgement. Then we discuss the problem of how to determine appropriate expert judgement for this task. Finally we argue that the status of expertise in this task is problematic and that this has implications for interpreting the outputs of such models.

Keywords: modelling; expertise; judgement; radioactive waste management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.1999.002714

International Journal of Technology Management, 1999 Vol.17 No.1/2, pp.75-83

Published online: 05 Jul 2003 *

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