Title: Simulation to assess the efficacy of US airport entry screening of passengers for pandemic influenza

Authors: Robert T. Brigantic, John D. Malone, George A. Muller, Russell Lee, Jim Kulesz, William Woody Delp, Benjamin H. McMahon

Addresses: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard (MS K8-23), Richland, Washington 99354, USA. ' Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard (MS K8-23), Richland, Washington 99354, USA. ' Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard (MS K8-23), Richland, Washington 99354, USA. ' Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA. ' Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA. ' Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Rd (MS-90R3058), Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. ' Los Alamos National Laboratory, T-6, MS K710, Los Alamos, CA, 87545, USA

Abstract: We present our methodology and stochastic discrete-event simulation developed to model the screening of passengers for pandemic influenza at the US port-of-entry airports. Our model uniquely combines epidemiology modelling, evolving infected states and conditions of passengers over time, and operational considerations of screening in a single simulation. The simulation begins with international aircraft arrivals to the US. Passengers are then randomly assigned to one of three states – not infected, infected with pandemic influenza and infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers then pass through various screening layers (i.e. pre-departure screening, en route screening, primary screening and secondary screening) and ultimately exit the system. We track the status of each passenger over time, with a special emphasis on false negatives (i.e. passengers infected with pandemic influenza, but are not identified as such) as these passengers pose a significant threat as they could unknowingly spread the pandemic influenza virus throughout our nation.

Keywords: epidemiology modelling; false negatives; pandemic influenza; flu pandemics; passenger screening; detection probability; process simulation; United States; USA; discrete-event simulation; airport screening; infectious diseases; biological security; risk assessment; biological threats; biosecurity; aircraft passengers.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2009.025924

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2009 Vol.12 No.2/3/4, pp.290 - 310

Published online: 25 May 2009 *

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