Title: Prices and competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports under the Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) policy

Authors: Imade Yoga Prasada; Aura Dhamira; Dinda Dewi Aisyah; Ayu Putri Merry Anisya

Addresses: Faculty of Science and Technology, Study Program of Agribusiness, Universitas Putra Bangsa, 54361 Kebumen, Indonesia ' Faculty of Agriculture, Agribusiness Department, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta, 55283 Yogyakarta, Indonesia ' Faculty of Agriculture, Agribusiness Department, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Yogyakarta, 55283 Yogyakarta, Indonesia ' Faculty of Science and Technology, Study Program of Agribusiness, Universitas Putra Bangsa, 54361 Kebumen, Indonesia

Abstract: The International Tripartite Rubber Council (ITRC) implements the Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme (AETS) policy as an effort to stabilise the price of natural rubber on the international market by limiting the volume of natural rubber exports from ITRC member countries, including Indonesia. This research was conducted with the aim of evaluating the impact of the AETS policy implementation on the price and competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports in destination countries. The data used is secondary data and is arranged in the form of panel data from 26 countries within the period of 2000 to 2022. The data was analysed using the RCA method, the two-stage least squares (2SLS) model, and the PSM model. Results show that the AETS policy implemented has not been able to have a significant impact on increasing the export price of Indonesian natural rubber. However, higher export prices have a negative relationship with the competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports in destination countries.

Keywords: AETS; Agreed Export Tonnage Scheme; competitiveness; natural rubber; price; 2SLS; two-stage least squares.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTGM.2025.148619

International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 2025 Vol.21 No.4, pp.439 - 461

Received: 24 Oct 2024
Accepted: 28 Mar 2025
Published online: 15 Sep 2025 *

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