Title: A brief history of the future of manufacturing: US manufacturing technology forecasts in retrospective, 1950-present

Authors: Jan Youtie, Philip Shapira, Aselia Urmanbetova, Jue Wang

Addresses: Enterprise Innovation Institute, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0640, USA. ' School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0345, USA. ' School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0345, USA. ' School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0345, USA

Abstract: This paper reviews the manufacturing technology forecasts made over the last five decades relative to the realisation of these predictions. Predictions as to how technology will evolve in future periods have had mixed records of fulfilment. Some manufacturing technologies have not fulfilled expectations (e.g. integration technologies in the 1980s) whereas others have greatly exceeded expected adoption rates (e.g. the internet in the 1990s). Moreover, technology forecasts did not occur in a vacuum; they were always conjoined with projections about how to manage these technologies, global responses to these technologies, and the impact they will have on employment and skill.

Keywords: manufacturing future; manufacturing modernisation; manufacturing technology history; technology forecasting; foresight.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2007.014013

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2007 Vol.3 No.3, pp.311 - 331

Published online: 10 Jun 2007 *

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