Title: Post COVID-19 dynamics through fractional-order

Authors: Nita H. Shah; Nisha Sheoran

Addresses: Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat, India ' Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat, India

Abstract: In this article, a fractional-order model for the COVID-19 scenario in India is formulated using nine different compartments in the Caputo sense. The fractional-order model mainly focuses on memory giving a better understanding of results. The formulated model has three equilibrium points namely disease-free, asymptomatic-free, and endemic equilibria. The basic reproduction number is computed for the model. The local stability conditions are derived for all three equilibrium points. Also, after four lockdowns in India, in this study, the unlocked COVID-19 data is considered for the best fit using the least curve fit method shown in numerical simulation. The figures and graphs are plotted to show the effectiveness of fractional-order and other various dynamics of the system.

Keywords: COVID-19; basic reproduction number; equilibrium points; local stability; Caputo derivative; sensitivity analysis; least curve fit.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMMNO.2023.134154

International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 2023 Vol.13 No.4, pp.383 - 404

Received: 08 Aug 2022
Accepted: 08 Mar 2023
Published online: 12 Oct 2023 *

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