Title: The climate change impact projections on seasonal residential sector CO2 emissions and energy demand forecasting for Turkish provinces

Authors: Can Coskun; Mustafa Erturk; Erol Arcaklioğlu; Kenan Balci; Zuhal Oktay

Addresses: Department of Mechanical Engineering, İzmir Democracy University, İzmir, Turkey ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, Sakarya, Turkey ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Ankara, Turkey ' Turgut Kiran Maritime Collage, Recep Tayyip Erdogan University, Rize, Turkey ' Department of Mechanical Engineering, İzmir Democracy University, İzmir, Turkey

Abstract: The main aim of this study was to determine the seasonal Turkish climate change maps by using long-term temperature trends for the first time and add it to published literature. Residential energy demand and CO2 emissions for Turkish cities were predicted from a current and future perspective by using seasonal climate change maps. There was a significant rise in outdoor temperature according to the results of daily, monthly and seasonal temperature distribution analyses. The temperature increase for each province in Turkey was calculated to reach a maximum of 6.09°C, but it was expected to be 2.65°C on average. Household energy demand and emission changes for each province over the next 100 years were predicted depending on the level of global climate change. Analysis results demonstrated that in the near future, Turkey will get hotter, more arid and unstable in terms of precipitation patterns, and the increase in the average temperatures in Turkey will lead to an increase in energy needs.

Keywords: climate change impact; energy; map; heating; cooling; residential sector; CO2 emissions; Turkey; forecasting.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2021.10039770

International Journal of Global Warming, 2021 Vol.24 No.3/4, pp.281 - 306

Received: 24 Dec 2019
Accepted: 30 May 2020

Published online: 21 Jul 2021 *

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