Title: Statistical and exponential triple smoothing approach to estimate the current and future deaths of Pakistani coal miners from 2010 to 2050

Authors: Niaz Muhammad Shahani; Muhammad Jawad Sajid; Xigui Zheng; Manzoor Ali Brohi; Nabi Bakhsh Mallah

Addresses: School of Mines, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, 221116, China ' School of Management, Xuzhou University of Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, China ' School of Mines, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, 221116, China ' Department of Management Sciences, Balochistan University of Information Technology, Engineering and Management Sciences, Quetta, 87300, Pakistan ' Faculty of Engineering and Technology, National Textile University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan

Abstract: Coal mining is considered to be the most dangerous occupation because it includes a large number of accidents and deaths of miners around the globe. Safety actions are essential, specifically in Pakistani underground coal mines considering this problem. This study carried out an empirical analysis of coal mine fatal accidents in Pakistan from 2010 to 2018. The research focused on the different mathematical aspects of accident categories, events, and fatality rates. The results show that 53 accidents are causing 312 deaths, of which 36% are mine collapse accidents and 51% are fatalities. Likewise, the gas explosion recorded 19% accidents and 17% of deaths, and mine blast recorded 13% accidents and 16% of deaths. The exponential triple smoothing (ETS) test showed steady rise in coal production while steady decline in the deaths of coal miners in Pakistan. The Pakistani coal miner's fatalities per million tons of coal production are expected to fall below zero after 2038. This paper also discusses the appropriate recommendations to solve Pakistani coal mines safety problems.

Keywords: coal mine fatal accidents; coal miner's fatality rate; coal mine safety management; underground coal mining in Pakistan; exponential triple smoothing; ETS.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMME.2021.114908

International Journal of Mining and Mineral Engineering, 2021 Vol.12 No.1, pp.34 - 47

Received: 05 Jun 2020
Accepted: 09 Oct 2020

Published online: 11 May 2021 *

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