Title: Átropos: towards a risk prediction model for software project management

Authors: Alexsandro Filippetto; Robson Lima; Jorge Barbosa

Addresses: University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS), Unisinos, Av. São Leopoldo 950, 93.022-000, RS, Brazil ' University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS), Unisinos, Av. São Leopoldo 950, 93.022-000, RS, Brazil ' University of Vale do Rio dos Sinos (UNISINOS), Unisinos, Av. São Leopoldo 950, 93.022-000, RS, Brazil

Abstract: Deep changes have been taking place in business, brought about by increasing technological advancement and a constant digital transformation. Risk event management has become strategic in project management, where uncertainties are inevitable. In this sense, the use of concepts of ubiquitous computing, such as contexts, context histories, and mobile computing can assist in proactive project management. This paper proposes a computational model to the reduction of the probability of project failure through the prediction of risks. The aim of the study is showing a model to assist teams to identify and monitor risks at different points in the life cycle of projects. This research was conducting a case study containing five projects in execution to evaluate the risk recommendations. For history, a database with 153 projects was used for a financial company. The recommendations were evaluated by a project team composed of 9 professionals, obtaining a result of 72% acceptance.

Keywords: risk management; risk prediction; risk identification; risk response; project management; agile management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJASM.2020.109255

International Journal of Agile Systems and Management, 2020 Vol.13 No.3, pp.296 - 314

Received: 04 Oct 2019
Accepted: 14 Feb 2020

Published online: 20 Aug 2020 *

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