Title: Climate change impact on groundwater recharge of Umm er Radhuma unconfined aquifer Western Desert, Iraq

Authors: Waqed Hammed Hassan

Addresses: Civil Engineering Department, University of Kerbala, Iraq

Abstract: The impact of future climate change on groundwater resources is significant, especially for arid and semi-arid areas such as the Middle East. In this study, the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge in the Umm er Radhuma unconfined aquifer in the Western Desert, Iraq was simulated using a modelling approach (WetSpass). Climate variables predicted for the period 2020 to 2099, were generated from the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM3), these appropriate for the most important developments in emission scenarios A2 and B2, in seven selected meteorology stations throughout the study area. The results indicated an increase in annual precipitation and in average temperature for the two selected scenarios. For the study region, precipitation is predicted to increase by 5.4% and 3.19%, for A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Consequently, the annual average groundwater recharge is expected to decrease by 16% for both scenarios in the next century.

Keywords: water resources management; groundwater sustainability; climate change; WetSpass; Umm er Radhuma aquifer; statistical downscaling models; SDSM.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2020.108268

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2020 Vol.10 No.4, pp.392 - 412

Received: 29 Jun 2018
Accepted: 16 Nov 2018
Published online: 08 Jul 2020 *

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