How might Shandong achieve the 2030 CO₂ emissions target? A system dynamics analysis from the perspective of energy supply-side structural reform in China
by Yingying Ma; Zaixu Zhang; Feifei Zhang; Zhiyang Liu
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 17, No. 4, 2019

Abstract: This paper takes Shandong Province as an example to forecast the CO₂ emission from 2017 to 2030 by system dynamics under four designed scenarios. The results indicate that despite the coal consumption, CO₂ emission and the CO₂ emission intensity of low intensity scenario and medium intensity scenario both decrease compared to the results of current scenario. However, neither the coal consumption peak year nor the CO₂ emission peak year is before 2030. We find that with the high intensity scenario, the CO₂ emission would peak on 2027 and the coal consumption would peak on 2021. Besides, the CO₂ emission intensity of 2030 is reduce by almost 80% of 2005 level. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are concluded based on the simulations results.

Online publication date: Wed, 22-May-2019

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