Projected changes in heat wave characteristics in the Carpathian Basin comparing different definitions
by Júlia Göndöcs; Breuer Hajnalka; Rita Pongrácz; Judit Bartholy
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 16, No. 2, 2018

Abstract: Heat waves (HWs) associated with climate change and increased near-surface air temperature can be considered as a climatic hazard for people and the environment. This study evaluates six HW detecting methods and the estimated HW characteristics (duration, frequency and intensity) from observational (CarpatClim database) and modelled (RegCM simulations with the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) datasets. The RegCM model results show a considerable future increase (by 2016-2045; 2061-2090) in HW days compared to the reference period (1971-2000). In case of RCP4.5, HW days become 3-6 times more frequent, while the increase is 5-9 fold for RCP8.5 by the end of the century. As a consequence of climate change, HW durations are also projected to become 1-2 (3-4) days longer on average for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) in the Carpathian Basin.

Online publication date: Thu, 06-Sep-2018

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