Developing a fault prediction model for wired copper networks under precipitation Online publication date: Fri, 31-Aug-2018
by Mahboobeh Moghaddam; Hamid Shobeiri Nejad; Mahmoud Mesbah; Mark Hickman
International Journal of Critical Infrastructures (IJCIS), Vol. 14, No. 3, 2018
Abstract: Telecommunication companies who face challenges of aging infrastructure need to balance the cost of maintenance with that of providing their services within a service level guarantee. For Telstra, the largest telecommunication company in Australia, this balance is achieved by adopting a passive approach to handle the faults that occur in the network. Rather than actively preventing faults, technicians are assigned to fix faults in a timely manner. However, to achieve an efficient and timely technician assignment, a prediction model is needed to advise planners of the potential number of faults in the network. From statistical analysis, we have developed a fault prediction model by investigating 29 months of data of faults. Our prediction model shows that rain has a significant impact on the number of faults in many areas across Australia, which can be the result of the aging infrastructure.
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