Integrating the logical-probabilistic modelling with the process phenomenology for an enhanced risk-based decision making
by Micaela Demichela; Gabriele Baldissone
International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management (IJBCRM), Vol. 7, No. 3, 2017

Abstract: Usually, the risk-based decision making in process plants is carried on through the quantitative risk assessment traditional techniques. Even if the QRA techniques are consolidated and widely accepted, they are mainly static, hardly taking into account time-dependent events and difficult to be updated in case of plant or process changes. In recent years, some dynamic risk assessment methodologies have been proposed, supported by process simulation, that would also allow to make more accurate balance within the risks and the costs needed to minimise them. This paper shows some applications of the methodology called integrated dynamic decision analysis, highlighting the benefits of integrating the logical-probabilistic modelling and the phenomenological behaviour of a system for the risk-based decision making in process plants. In particular, in this paper, three applications of the techniques to support risk-based decision making are proposed, all of them using economic indicators (different kind of costs) for the technological risk calculation.

Online publication date: Tue, 19-Dec-2017

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