Expert-based text mining with Delphi method for crude oil price prediction Online publication date: Sun, 19-Mar-2017
by Somboon Chuaykoblap; Parames Chutima; Achara Chandrachai; Natawut Nupairoj
International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering (IJISE), Vol. 25, No. 4, 2017
Abstract: As crude is one of the most important commodities, the crude price forecasting has continuously been a centre of interest. The traditional techniques are focusing on econometric models which could not cope with the short term abnormality. Text data mining from news articles could be an effective method to predict the crude oil price variation caused by irregularities, but, the main issues in text mining originate from the particularities of natural language. In this research, the expert-based Delphi text mining (EDTM) is proposed to predict the movement of crude prices when the irregularity occurs. We employ the hierarchical clustering algorithm to reveal implicit knowledge hidden in news streams. Next, the Delphi method is introduced to give weighted ratings for different corresponding events extracted from the news. Finally, a comprehensive experiment is illustrated to show the effectiveness.
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