Technology selection based on main parameters of value and fuzzy logic
by Len Malinin
International Journal of Business Innovation and Research (IJBIR), Vol. 11, No. 3, 2016

Abstract: Corporations often need to select a prospective technology from several available alternatives and make a business decision, investing in the prospective candidate and continuing monitoring others. The consequences of a wrong choice can be disastrous, as the recent selection by Navistar of a wrong technology for reduction of the amount of nitrogen oxides and soot from diesel engines has shown (Muller, 2012). One of the instruments in the technology forecasting area is the technical evolutionary theory, based on the trends of engineering systems evolution, introduced in TRIZ (Ladewig, 2007). One trend is often presented graphically as an S-curve, or growth curve, showing how the main characteristic(s) of the system (main parameters of value, MPV) change over time. The approach discussed in this paper is based on positioning a given system on its S-curve, using one of the MPVs as its axis. The positioning in most cases requires operating with fuzzy categories. However, this aspect is often overlooked, which can lead to non-optimal investment decisions. The application of fuzzy logic (FL) to positioning a technology on the S-curve is illustrated in the following case study, where the technologies for making small diameter holes in superalloy components were analysed.

Online publication date: Sun, 04-Sep-2016

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