Grey theory to predict Ethiopian foreign currency exchange rate
by Natnael Nigussie Goshu; Surafel Luleseged Tilahun
International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence (IJBFMI), Vol. 2, No. 2, 2016

Abstract: A system containing known values and uncertain unknown values is called a Grey system. Grey system requires only a limited amount of data to estimate the behaviour of unknown systems with poor, incomplete or uncertain information. In this paper, the accuracies of different Grey system models such as GM(1,1), FRMGM(1,1), VGM and FRMVGM are investigated. In addition to this, Linear Regression model is also used for comparison. These Grey models solve complex and sophisticated problems like foreign currency exchange. Foreign currency exchange rates are affected by many highly correlated factors. These factors could be economic, political and even psychological factors, and each of them affect the rate of currency exchange in difference level from time to time. Foreign currency exchange rate from Commercial Bank of Ethiopia between November 2014 and October 2015 are used to compare the performance of different models. The simulation result shows that FRMGM(1,1) is the best in model fitting and forecasting foreign currency exchange.

Online publication date: Thu, 04-Aug-2016

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence (IJBFMI):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com