On the usability of real option valuation model types under different types of uncertainty
by Mikael Collan; Tero Haahtela; Kalevi Kyläheiko
International Journal of Business Innovation and Research (IJBIR), Vol. 11, No. 1, 2016

Abstract: This paper discusses the usability of real option valuation model types under different types of uncertainty. Three types of uncertainty are presented (parametric, structural and procedural), followed by a presentation of six different real option valuation types that are variably suitable for different uncertainties that in turn characterise real world decision-making situations. A usability-based mapping of real option valuation models with each type of uncertainty is made and discussed. Implications concerning decision-making are direct: wrong model selection may lead to unreliable or wrong results and, consequently, poor and often expensive investment decisions.

Online publication date: Thu, 07-Jul-2016

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