Forecasting CO₂ emission of Turkey: swarm intelligence approaches
by Eren Özceylan
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 9, No. 3, 2016

Abstract: It is known that among the various greenhouse gases, CO₂ is the most frequently implicated in global warming and climate change. Therefore, there is a need for developing efficient quantitative tools that allow forecasting CO₂ emissions. This paper presents application of particle swarm optimisation (PSO) and artificial bee colony (ABC) techniques to estimate CO₂ emission in Turkey, based on socio-economic indicators. The models are developed in three forms which are linear, exponential and quadratic. PSO^CO2 and ABC^CO2 (PSO and ABC CO₂ estimation models) are developed to estimate the future CO₂ emission values based on energy consumption, population, gross domestic product (GDP), and number of motor vehicles data. Emitted CO₂ emission in Turkey from 1980 to 2008 is considered as the case of this study. While the first 25 years data of 29 years data is used for validation of four models, full data is used for future projections. Sum square error (SSE) is used as a fitness function in proposed models. Finally, CO₂ emission in Turkey is forecasted up to year 2030 under different scenarios.

Online publication date: Wed, 23-Mar-2016

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com