Developing scenarios to support interactive policy analysis: experiences from two policy analysis studies
by Odette A.W.T. Van De Riet, Mirjam Van Het Loo, James P. Kahan
International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management (IJTPM), Vol. 5, No. 2, 2005

Abstract: Scenarios alert policymakers and stakeholders to emerging problems and provide a reference point for long-term strategic planning. To be useful, scenarios have to be both scientifically credible and policy-relevant. A wide range of perceptions have to be taken into account in the scenario-building process – as policymaking is not or no longer characterised by 'the choice' of 'the policymaker' and policymaking processes have become more and more open. The question is how to deal with divergent perceptions and interests. The traditional scenario approach does not address these issues – it was originally designed for authorative top-down planning. In this paper, we explore, based on two case studies, what demands a multi-actor policy setting puts on the scenario-building process.

Online publication date: Sun, 31-Jul-2005

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