Oil demand forecasting for India using artificial neural network
by S. Jebaraj; S. Iniyan
International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI), Vol. 38, No. 4/5/6, 2015

Abstract: Energy is a vital input for the growth of any nation. Since oil resource has become a vital factor for future developments of a country, a system of models has to be developed to provide forecasts of oil demands in various sectors. This analysis utilises regression techniques, double moving average method, double exponential smoothing method, triple exponential smoothing method, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model (univariate and multivariate) for oil demand forecasts in India. Model validation is done to select the best forecasting model. It is found that the ANN model gives better results in most of the cases. Hence, it is suggested that the ANN model can be used for forecasting oil demands in India. It is also predicted that the total oil demand for the years 2020 and 2030 will be 415,373 and 720,688 thousand tonnes, respectively.

Online publication date: Wed, 01-Jul-2015

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