Analysing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ emissions in China using segmented equations and partial least squares
by Qian Gao; Ming Meng; Lei Wen; Dongxiao Niu
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 7, No. 4, 2015

Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in China from 1979 to 2010. We propose a segmented equation for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The partial least squares method is used to estimate the equation parameters. The conclusions drawn are as follows: 1) China's CO₂ emissions are still in the first stage of the EKC. A significant increase in income per capita is needed for China's CO₂ emissions per capita to reach its peak point in the inverted U-shaped EKC; 2) the ideal equation used to simulate the relationship between China's income per capita and CO₂ emissions per capita after 2010 is In(C_t) = −13.3568 + 3.1708In(I_t) − 0.1608(In(I_t))². This equation can help China's government set its ideal CO₂ control target at a specific income per capita, at least until the income per capita reaches RMB 19,137.2; 3) China's CO₂ emissions per capita will peak some time between 2026 and 2027. After 2027, China's CO₂ emissions per capita will decrease as income per capita increases.

Online publication date: Fri, 26-Jun-2015

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