A variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model to forecast electricity consumption
by Zaid Mohamed, Pat S. Bodger
International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT), Vol. 22, No. 2/3, 2005

Abstract: The logistic model has been very effective in forecasting many technological forecasting patterns. However, it has the characteristic of underestimating the forecasts in many situations. This is mainly due to the constraints imposed by the constant saturation level of the logistic growth curve. This paper proposes a variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model for forecasting electricity consumption in New Zealand. The saturation level of electricity consumption is found by the respective degree of correlation with the population of the country and the price of electricity. This is used as a variable asymptote in this logistic model and hence the name variable asymptote logistic (VAL) model. The VAL model gave lower forecasting errors than the logistic model and gave future forecasts that are higher than the logistic model. The software package MATLAB is used in all stages of the simulation.

Online publication date: Tue, 26-Apr-2005

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com