The IIASA scenarios of 1981 compared with the IEW results of 1992
by Leo Schrattenholzer
International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI), Vol. 4, No. 3, 1992

Abstract: In 1981 the Energy Systems Program at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) published five scenarios of global energy demand and supply for the period 1975-2030. At least two of them, the high and low scenarios, are still quoted today. This paper analyses how accurately the IIASA scenarios of 1981 captured the actual development during the first 15 years of their time horizon. Those parts of the scenarios that refer to developments still in the future are also compared with current views of the long-term development of the global energy system as expressed in recent results collected by the International Energy Workshop (IEW). The comparisons show that the low scenario of 1981 came closest to actual developments up to 1990. With the exception of nuclear energy, its further projections fall well within the range of today's global energy scenarios.

Online publication date: Thu, 17-Jul-2014

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com