Factors affecting the long-term cost of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions reductions
by Jae Edmonds, David W. Barns
International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI), Vol. 4, No. 3, 1992

Abstract: This paper explores the sensitivity of economic measures of the cost of reducing global fossil fuel carbon emissions to a variety of conditions which characterize the evolution of future global energy systems. Two factors, the rate of labour productivity growth and the rate of exogenous end-use energy intensity improvement, create the greatest divergence in the observed tax rate necessary to achieve a given emission level in either 2025 or 2050. When these two factors were coupled, however, cost sensitivity declined appreciably. Other, non-greenhouse, environmental, health, and safety concerns, add to energy production costs, and have a major impact on the cost of emissions reductions. Changes in the composition of economic activities in developing countries, the size of the inexpensive fossil fuel resource base, and the price responsiveness of energy users were also important determinants of cost. Surprisingly absent from the list of important factors influencing the sensitivity of the costs of stabilizing future global carbon emissions is population growth. The cost burden of emissions reductions was generally below five per cent of GNP per year in all sensitivities explored, and significantly less in most cases. Nevertheless, the burden tended to increase with time. Variations in costs of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions as great as those found in the literature can be obtained by varying input assumptions.

Online publication date: Thu, 17-Jul-2014

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