A comparison between the Gumbel-Hougaard and distorted Frank copulas for drought frequency analysis
by Geraldine Wong
International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology (IJHST), Vol. 3, No. 1, 2013

Abstract: Drought is a global phenomenon and is a common characteristic of extreme climate. It is widely considered as the world's costliest natural disaster since their effects are especially devastating to the agricultural and social economy. Effective water resource infrastructure and management is required for the mitigation of drought, and this requires drought risk assessment. Essential characteristics of drought are severity, average intensity and duration, which are highly correlated. Copulas are multivariate uniform distribution functions with uniform marginals, which provide a flexible approach to model their relationship. For an extreme drought event to be modelled, the upper-tail dependence must be investigated. The construction of an alternative copula form is introduced through a transformation called a distortion, to allow for more versatile modelling of tail dependence. Data from a rainfall district in New South Wales is considered and the Gumbel-Hougaard copula and distorted Frank copulas are fitted to the drought characteristics. Goodness-of-fit and upper tail correlations of these copulas are analysed and discussed. Finally, conditional annual drought recurrence intervals are calculated and compared for these fitted copulas.

Online publication date: Sat, 12-Jul-2014

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology (IJHST):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com