On the future of technological forecasting and assessment
by Harold A. Linstone
International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (IJFIP), Vol. 1, No. 3/4, 2004

Abstract: A look back and a look forward is presented in this brief overview of the field of technological forecasting and assessment. The past is divided into two distinct periods: 1945 to the 1970s and the 1970s to the 1990s. The former saw the development of a variety of forecasting tools, the latter a time of disillusionment but also the emergence of new directions, including complexity science, multiple perspectives, and national foresight projects. Looking ahead, information technology is galvanising new approaches including bibliometric analysis, bioinformatics, and the coevolution of technology and organisations. Finally, the inherent limits of forecasting are noted and the implications probed, specifically the need for robust strategies not constrained by the past.

Online publication date: Wed, 04-Aug-2004

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