Do professional hockey teams with a two-goal lead lose more often than they should?
by Jack Brimberg; W.J. Hurley
International Journal of Operational Research (IJOR), Vol. 15, No. 2, 2012

Abstract: There is a popular notion that hockey teams blow two-goal leads more often than they should. Hockey experts argue that teams with a two-goal lead tend to revert to a more defensive style of play and do so at their peril. We subjected the claim to National Hockey League data from the 2010 season and found that teams in such a predicament do not lose more often than they should. A possible explanation for the two-goal myth derives from the availability heuristic suggested by Kahneman and Tversky.

Online publication date: Sun, 11-Jan-2015

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