Statistical downscaling of temperatures under climate change scenarios for Thames river basin, Canada
by Manish Kumar Goyal; Donald H. Burn; C.S.P. Ojha
International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW), Vol. 4, No. 1, 2012

Abstract: Many impact studies require climate change information at a finer resolution than that provided by Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This paper investigates the impact of climate change on maximum and minimum temperatures (i.e., predictands) of 14 meteorological stations in the Upper Thames River Basin (UTRB), Ontario, Canada. The data used for evaluation were large-scale predictor variables, extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set and the simulations from third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate model (CGCM3). Data for four grid points covering the study region were used for developing the downscaling model. A downscaling method based on neural network was applied to project predictands generated from GCM using three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The potential of the downscaling models in simulating predictands was evaluated and downscaling results reveal that the proposed downscaling model can reproduce local daily predictands from large-scale weather variables. Trends of projected maximum and minimum temperatures were studied for historical as well as downscaled values using GCM and scenario uncertainty. There is most likely an increasing trend for Tmax and Tmin for A2 scenario whereas no trend has been observed for B1 scenarios during 2081-2100.

Online publication date: Sat, 13-Dec-2014

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com