Endogenous learning in world post-Kyoto scenarios: application of the POLES model under adaptive expectations
by Nikolaos Kouvaritakis, Antonio Soria, Stephane Isoard, Claude Thonet
International Journal of Global Energy Issues (IJGEI), Vol. 14, No. 1/2/3/4, 2000

Abstract: This paper describes the endogenous technical change module that has been incorporated in POLES and the main quantitative results of the new version of the model and corresponding exercises. Section 2 presents the methodology that has been used in order to assess the returns to R&D for the main power generation technologies identified in the model. R&D budget allocation is then analysed for the base case in Section 3, which also illustrates the differences in the behaviour, respectively of the least and most risk-averse agents. Section 4, analyses in detail the changes in budget allocation that are induced by the introduction of CO₂ emission constraints to 2030, as well as their impacts on marginal and total abatement costs for the main world regions. As a last step, the consequences of changes in public R&D are examined in Section 5. This exercise shows that the performance and diffusion of the technologies benefiting from the shift in public R&D are largely improved, in spite of noticeable ''crowding out'' effects - of private research by public research - for these technologies.

Online publication date: Mon, 10-May-2004

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