Using the language of summarising statistics in dynamic decisions
by Kurt J. Engemann, Holmes E. Miller, Ronald R. Yager
International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management (IJTPM), Vol. 3, No. 3/4, 2003

Abstract: Decision making under risk in a dynamic environment involves making a sequence of decisions which are interspersed with probabilistic events leading to an uncertain outcome. Decision makers typically use the expected value as a measure to summarise the value of a particular decision policy. We introduce a new methodology, using the language of summarising statistics, to allow the decision maker to assess the worth of a course of action. The decision maker may systematically align probabilistic elements with his own judgement. Summarising statistics provide descriptive measures to aid the decision maker's understanding of a complex dynamic decision environment and to select a preferred sequence of decisions. We apply the Ordered Weighted Averaging operator as a basis for generating summarising statistics. We show how weight generating functions can induce different forms of Ordered Weighted Averaging operators which in turn revise event probabilities in the light of the decision maker's disposition. We illustrate our methodology by determining a decision policy to counter cyberterrorism.

Online publication date: Mon, 10-May-2004

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management (IJTPM):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com