Modelling emission trends from non-constant time series of PM₁₀ concentrations in Christchurch, New Zealand
by Tim Appelhans, Andrew Sturman, Peyman Zawar-Reza
International Journal of Environment and Pollution (IJEP), Vol. 43, No. 4, 2010

Abstract: This paper presents an attempt to model the trend of emissions through analysis of a time series of PPM₁₀ concentrations in Christchurch, New Zealand. Emissions are not constant over time, but show high seasonality. Fluctuations are removed by creating a time series in which concentrations do not show dependency on ambient air temperature. Remaining meteorological influences are removed through multiple linear regression. Finally, a moving average filter is applied to reveal the low-frequency trend in the residuals of the meteorologically adjusted time series. The modelled trend shows a peak in emissions in 2001-2002 with a steady decrease thereafter.

Online publication date: Tue, 16-Nov-2010

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