Export dependence and the economic crisis in the West Balkans
by Milena Jovicic
International Journal of Sustainable Economy (IJSE), Vol. 2, No. 4, 2010

Abstract: The global economic crisis showed effects in the West Balkans in the second half of 2008, multiplying the already existing economic problems. To investigate the relationship between the domestic economic activities and the economic dependence of these countries on foreign economic relations, we observe the main economic indicators assessing their trend breakpoints. Then, by use of vector autoregression (VAR) modelling, we test causality in chain of events between domestic industrial production and exports. The tested hypotheses are the following: (1) the more closely a country is connected in trade with other (more developed) countries, the sooner it experiences the crises and (2) the harder are the effects. The results of our econometric analysis give evidence in favour of the first assumption, while for the intensity of the crisis the opposite seems to be true: countries less open to foreign trade seem to demonstrate a larger production decrease.

Online publication date: Thu, 30-Sep-2010

The full text of this article is only available to individual subscribers or to users at subscribing institutions.

 
Existing subscribers:
Go to Inderscience Online Journals to access the Full Text of this article.

Pay per view:
If you are not a subscriber and you just want to read the full contents of this article, buy online access here.

Complimentary Subscribers, Editors or Members of the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Sustainable Economy (IJSE):
Login with your Inderscience username and password:

Username:        Password:          Forgotten your password?

Want to subscribe?
A subscription gives you complete access to all articles in the current issue, as well as to all articles in the previous three years (where applicable). See our Orders page to subscribe.

If you still need assistance, please email subs@inderscience.com